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“One of the most influential analysts of the global economy.”
– The Times

Gerard is one of the UK’s leading economists, possessing expertise across a wealth of areas.

Alongside his deep knowledge of the UK economy, he is also an expert on global trends and emerging markets. His international perspective and thorough analysis are informed by first-hand experience in senior roles over three decades in both the private sector and in public policy.

Gerard is one of the UK’s leading economists, possessing expertise across a wealth of areas.

Alongside his deep knowledge of the UK economy, he is also an expert on global trends and emerging markets. His international perspective and thorough analysis are informed by first-hand experience in senior roles over three decades in both the private sector and in public policy.

Times op-ed: Labour’s history offers a warning on this tax, borrow, spend budget

Times op-ed: Labour’s history offers a warning on this tax, borrow, spend budget

Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, wants to address the UK’s low rate of investment. Ideally, this should include incentivising the private sector and requires the City to pull its weight in closing funding gaps.

It also requires higher public investment. This is expected to be the focus in the budget and funded by borrowing. Also, taxes look set to rise to fund current expenditure.

The fiscal rules could be replaced, as they lack credibility. Instead, the definition of debt looks set to change to allow increased public investment, by including assets through a balance sheet approach. The various definitional options of debt available have pros and cons, as the Institute for Fiscal Studies outlined last week.

While welcome, a balance sheet approach doesn’t get away from the fact that debt is high and the deficit still has to be funded, with investors and financial markets kept on side.

Centre for Policy Studies – Why the EU is Not the Answer to Britain’s Growth Challenge

Centre for Policy Studies – Why the EU is Not the Answer to Britain’s Growth Challenge

Addressing the UK’s growth problem is paramount and should underpin virtually every other priority when it comes to public policy. However, contrary to recent clamour, re-joining the EU, its Single Market (SM) or Customs Union (CU) will not provide a solution to Britain’s growth challenge, and should not be part of any pro-growth strategy. The Government needs to have the confidence to stand its ground on remaining outside of EU institutions. It should do so based on an assessment of the present situation, of which there are 10 key features:

The Times op-ed: Black Monday crash didn’t last long. We’ll bounce back again now

The Times op-ed: Black Monday crash didn’t last long. We’ll bounce back again now

On Monday, Japan’s stock market suffered its biggest fall since Black Monday in 1987. There was contagion as stock markets across the globe crashed.

Last Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve left policy rates unchanged at 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent but stressed its bias to ease. By Friday the Fed’s lack of action was already being seen as a policy mistake, as data showed US jobs growth slowing and unemployment rising in July.

Although the Fed described the economy as solid and drew attention to strong private domestic demand, the rate of US unemployment is 0.9 percentage points above the low seen in April 2023, often a harbinger of recession. Now the markets fear a hard landing and expect US rates to be cut by 1.25 points by December.

Big money questions with economist Dr Gerard Lyons and his daughter, comedian Elf Lyons.

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